Nov. 18, 2019
"From the structural ratio analysis from January to September this year, the proportion of ultra-high power Graphite Electrode has increased significantly, and the export volume has also increased by 25% year-on-year. This is the highlight of the carbon industry in terms of structural adjustment. At the same time, in the next 2 to 3 years, The carbon industry will enter the peak period of reshuffle. During this period of time, the carbon industry restructuring and the survival of the fittest will accelerate, and it is expected that some of the competitive carbon companies will be formed, while the less competitive enterprises will hibernate, shock or die. A new balance will be reached. By then, the carbon industry will usher in new opportunities and developments.” On November 7, at the China Carbon Industry Association Sixth Five-Party Meeting and Carbon Industry Development Summit Forum, China's carbon industry Yan Kuixing, president of the association, senior partner, executive director and president of Fangda Group, said.
It is understood that at present, except for a small number of enterprises and some large-scale products, the conventional carbon products of most carbon enterprises are selling at a loss. The carbon industry needs to form a consensus and self-discipline. While serving downstream enterprises, it concentrates on accelerating technological innovation.
First, the economic benefits are rich, resulting in serious overcapacity
It is understood that from January to September this year, the output of graphite electrode was 512,560 tons, an increase of 6.42%. Among them, ordinary power products were 77,991 tons, down 35.29% year-on-year; high-power products were 158,156 tons, down 5.88% year-on-year; ultra-high power products were 276,413 tons, up 43.15% year-on-year. In the same period, the export volume of graphite electrode was 117,883 tons, an increase of 17.23% year-on-year, of which ultra-high power reached 8,094 tons, an increase of 25.6%. In the same period, the output of carbon (graphite) electrodes for submerged arc furnaces was 71,388 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.72%.
Recently, domestic major industrial silicon producers have built their own carbon (graphite) electrode production plants for silicon, resulting in a serious overcapacity of such products. The market has shown a disorderly competition in the market for price reduction, market marketing operations are difficult, and production companies are operating at a low profit.
Second, the next 2 years to 3 years will be brutally shuffled, but the prospects are broad
Starting from the second half of 2017, the carbon industry will be expanded and expanded. Among them, the graphite electrode has formed a capacity of 1.9 million tons (1.9 million tons is already a global demand), and the capacity utilization rate is only 42%. If the capacity under construction, the planned construction capacity, and the production capacity of the enterprises that have not been put into production for many years are resumed and expanded, the total production capacity will reach 2.4 million tons to 2.7 million tons. At the same time, the capacity utilization ratio of the pre-baked anode for aluminum and the carbon (graphite) electrode for the submerged arc furnace is about 65% and 45%, respectively.
“The consequences of low-level redundant construction caused by profiteering and blind expansion of production capacity began to appear gradually in early 2019.” Yan Kuixing pointed out that with the gradual release of new capacity, from January to August this year, sales of Φ550 mm graphite electrode Guaranteed, Φ500mm or less has been lost. By the fourth quarter of this year, if vicious competition cannot be effectively suppressed, it is difficult to protect the Φ600 mm graphite electrode.
Yan Kuixing predicts that by the second half of 2020, overcapacity will be fully manifested, and competition in some products may be more cruel. A considerable number of enterprises will suffer losses, the capital chain will be broken, production and operation will be difficult to sustain, and serious overcapacity will lead to reshuffle. Inevitability; 2021 will enter the peak period of reshuffle, which may last for 2 to 3 years.
"In the future of this round of brutal competition and shuffling, the survival of the strong and the elimination of the weak are the laws of the market economy that cannot be violated. We must be clear-headed, think ahead, and grasp the long-term sustainable development direction of the company." Yan Kuixing pointed out.
The carbon industry is an important raw material industry in the country. The carbon material has excellent properties and is a special material that cannot be replaced by any metal or non-metal material in many fields. It has been widely used in metallurgy, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery and many other fields. At the same time, the use of carbon products will become more and more extensive, especially the new materials such as nano carbon and graphene, which are prospective carbon new materials, will be the leader of the new material industry revolution in the 21st century.
At the same time, the raw materials used in the production of carbon products are waste residues in the production process of petrochemical and coal chemical industries, namely Petroleum Coke Graphite Electrode and pitch coke. Most carbon products are produced by using petroleum coke or pitch coke and asphalt as main raw materials, and various carbon products (artificial carbon and graphite materials) are produced through complex deep processing. This is the secondary use of energy and is a typical circular economy industry.
Third, the new development of the carbon industry needs multiple approaches
At the meeting, Yan Kuixing said that in order to promote the new development of the carbon industry, it is necessary to focus on the following work in the near future:
The first is to promote mergers and acquisitions. "We must seize the opportunity of overcapacity and face reshuffle, and promote and accelerate mergers and acquisitions." Yan Kuixing pointed out that industry associations will promote and serve "accelerate mergers and acquisitions in the same industry or upstream and downstream industrial chains." Such integration and mergers and acquisitions should be considered in the domestic industry and upstream and downstream, and may also be considered to go out and implement mergers and acquisitions, holdings or shareholdings in the same industry and upstream and downstream of the international market.
The second is to adhere to green development. It is understood that the newly released National Standard for Energy Consumption Limits for Carbon Units has been implemented, and the group standard for Carbon Industry Emission Standards for Carbon Industry was also implemented on September 1, 2019. Yan Kuixing said: "We must benchmark and strengthen energy conservation and consumption reduction management to further reduce energy consumption. In terms of environmental protection, we must implement a green carbon strategy, which cannot meet the requirements of emission standards, and we must make investment and accelerate the upgrading of environmental protection equipment to achieve super Low emissions."
The third is to do a good job in international trade. "We must pay close attention to anti-dumping trends, closely cooperate with the Ministry of Commerce, the Chamber of Commerce for Electromechanical Chambers, etc., do a good job in anti-dumping investigations, organize enterprises involved in the case to actively respond to the lawsuits, coordinate and solve problems arising in the process of responding to the lawsuit, and jointly safeguard national interests and industry interests. We must take precautions, establish an anti-dumping early warning mechanism, and strengthen the industrial damage early warning and monitoring system. Enterprises are the most familiar and most sensitive to the market situation in the first line of the market. This work is led by the association and all enterprises must closely cooperate. Yan Kuixing pointed out.
The fourth is to strengthen industry self-discipline. "To overcapacity and curb disorderly competition is a major event in front of most industries in China. Under this situation, we must make a difference. Specifically, we must do our utmost to advocate the self-discipline of China Graphite Electrodes Factory. The competition has reached a point of intense heat, very cruel, can not be played like this." Yan Kuixing pointed out.
The fifth is to accelerate technological innovation. “Our short board is mainly in some products and raw materials. Short products of products, one is “three high” (high strength, high density, high purity) graphite in special field, and the second is carbon fiber composite material. The ultra-high-power graphite electrode joint coke and the large-sized ultra-high-power graphite electrode body needle coke are still dependent on imports; the second is the production of polyacrylonitrile-based carbon fiber raw material polyacrylonitrile raw silk, which is currently controlled by strategic substances in the world. It is difficult to import. These two short plates seriously restrict the development and production of high-end carbon products in China and the development needs of special countries in the country.” Yan Kuixing said.
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